The Initial Area Under the Curve Derived from Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI Improves Prognosis Prediction in Glioblastoma with Unmethylated MGMT Promoter

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Although perfusion and permeability MR parameters have known to have prognostic value, they have reproducibility issues. Our aim was to evaluate whether the initial area under the time-to-signal intensity curve (IAUC) derived from dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging can improve prognosis prediction in patients with glioblastoma with known MGMT status.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively examined 88 patients with glioblastoma who underwent preoperative dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging. The means of IAUC values at 30 and 60 seconds (IAUC30_mean and IAUC60_mean) were extracted from enhancing tumors. The prognostic values of IAUC parameters for overall survival and progression-free survival were assessed with log-rank tests, according to the MGMT status. Multivariate overall survival and progression-free survival models before and after adding the IAUC parameters as covariates were explored by net reclassification improvement after receiver operating characteristic analysis for 1.5-year overall survival and 1-year progression-free survival and by random survival forest.

RESULTS: High IAUC parameters were associated with worse overall survival and progression-free survival in the unmethylated MGMT group, but not in the methylated group. In the unmethylated MGMT group, 1.5-year overall survival and 1-year progression-free survival prediction improved significantly after adding IAUC parameters (overall survival area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.86; progression-free survival area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.74–0.76) to the model with other prognostic factors (overall survival area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.81; progression-free survival area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.69; P < .05 for all) except in the case of IAUC60_mean for 1-year progression-free survival prediction (P = .059). Random survival forest models indicated that the IAUC parameters were the second or most important predictors in the unmethylated MGMT group, except in the case of the IAUC60_mean for progression-free survival.

CONCLUSIONS: IAUC can be a useful prognostic imaging biomarker in patients with glioblastoma with known MGMT status, improving prediction of glioblastoma prognosis with the unmethylated MGMT promoter status.