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Research ArticleADULT BRAIN

The Initial Area Under the Curve Derived from Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI Improves Prognosis Prediction in Glioblastoma with Unmethylated MGMT Promoter

Y.S. Choi, S.S. Ahn, H.-J. Lee, J.H. Chang, S.-G. Kang, E.H. Kim, S.H. Kim and S.-K. Lee
American Journal of Neuroradiology August 2017, 38 (8) 1528-1535; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3174/ajnr.A5265
Y.S. Choi
aFrom the Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiological Science (Y.S.C., S.S.A., H.-J.L., S.-K.L.)
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S.S. Ahn
aFrom the Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiological Science (Y.S.C., S.S.A., H.-J.L., S.-K.L.)
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H.-J. Lee
aFrom the Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiological Science (Y.S.C., S.S.A., H.-J.L., S.-K.L.)
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J.H. Chang
cNeurosurgery (J.H.C., S.-G.K., E.H.K.), Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
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S.-G. Kang
cNeurosurgery (J.H.C., S.-G.K., E.H.K.), Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
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E.H. Kim
cNeurosurgery (J.H.C., S.-G.K., E.H.K.), Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
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S.H. Kim
bDepartments of Pathology (S.H.K.)
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S.-K. Lee
aFrom the Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiological Science (Y.S.C., S.S.A., H.-J.L., S.-K.L.)
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    Fig 1.

    Kaplan-Meier curves of overall survival (A–C) and progression-free survival (D–F) with IAUC30mean in the unmethylated MGMT (A and D, n = 51) and methylated MGMT groups (B and E, n = 31) and the entire cohort (C and F, n = 88). IAUC30mean stratified OS (log-rank test, P = .008) and PFS (log-rank test, P = .010) only in the unmethylated MGMT group, but not in the methylated MGMT group (log-rank test, P = .429 for OS, P = .238 for PFS).

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    Fig 2.

    A 52-year-old male patient with glioblastoma with unmethylated MGMT promoter status, whose overall survival time was 477 days. T1 weighted images (A), IAUC30 parameter map of the enhancing tumor (B), the relative frequency histogram of IAUC30 (C), and the time to the mean signal-intensity curve of the enhancing tumor (D). The volume of enhancing tumor was 8.4 cm3, and the IAUC30mean was 5.4.

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    Fig 3.

    A 59-year-old female patient with glioblastoma with unmethylated MGMT promoter status, whose overall survival time was 250 days. T1-weighted image (A), IAUC30 parameter map of the enhancing tumor (B), the relative frequency histogram of IAUC30 (C), and the time to the mean signal-intensity curve of the enhancing tumor (D). The volume of the enhancing tumor was 7.4 cm3, and the IAUC30mean was 16.1.

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    Fig 4.

    Kaplan-Meier curves depicting survival classification after random survival forest ranking of prognostic factors in glioblastomas with unmethylated MGMT promoter status (n = 51). Representative trees with IAUC30mean (A) and IAUC60mean (B) for OS caused the volume of enhancing tumor to be the primary split and then the IAUC30mean to split the subgroup with a low volume of enhancing tumor subsequently (log-rank test, P < .001). C, A representative tree with IAUC30mean for PFS caused the IAUC30mean to be the primary split and then the extent of resection to split the subgroup with high IAUC30mean subsequently (log-rank test, P < .002).

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    Table 1:

    Univariate analysis of IAUC histogram parameters as predictors of OS and PFS in the unmethylated and methylated MGMT subgroups.

    Survival/ParametersUnmethylated MGMT (n = 51)Methylated MGMT (n = 37)
    Cutoff ValueHR (95% CI)P ValueaCutoff ValueHR (95% CI)P Valuea
    OS
        IAUC30mean≥10.93.04 (1.28–7.21).008≥15.10.60 (0.17–2.14).429
        IAUC60mean≥28.43.48 (1.20–10.14).015≥32.00.42 (0.16–1.14).079
    PFS
        IAUC30mean≥10.92.60 (1.23–5.50).010≥15.10.52 (0.18–1.56).238
        IAUC60mean≥32.62.15 (1.14–4.05).015≥32.80.24 (0.22–1.28).155
    • Note:—HR indicates hazard ratio.

    • ↵a Calculated from the log-rank test.

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    Table 2:

    Reclassification improvement by adding IAUC parameters for predicting 1.5-year OS (n = 43) and 1-year PFS (n = 50) in the unmethylated MGMT group

    Survival Time/ModelsAUC (95% CI)NRI (95% CI)P Valuea
    1.5-year OS (n = 43)
        Model 0 (ref)Age, extent of resection, postoperative treatment, volume of enhancing tumors, eloquent brain involvement0.81 (0.65–0.96)––
        Model 1IAUC30mean0.86 (0.74–0.98)0.95 (0.61–1.29).005
        Model 2IAUC60mean0.86 (0.72–0.99)0.81 (0.47–1.15).018
    1-year PFS (n = 50)
        Model 0 (ref)Age, extent of resection, postoperative treatment, volume of enhancing tumors0.69 (0.54–0.84)––
        Model 1IAUC30mean0.76 (0.62–0.90)0.69 (0.39–0.98).020
        Model 2IAUC60mean0.74 (0.58–0.89)0.56 (0.26–0.85).059
    • Note:—NRI indicates net reclassification improvement; ref, reference.

    • ↵a Calculated from category-less NRI.

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Y.S. Choi, S.S. Ahn, H.-J. Lee, J.H. Chang, S.-G. Kang, E.H. Kim, S.H. Kim, S.-K. Lee
The Initial Area Under the Curve Derived from Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI Improves Prognosis Prediction in Glioblastoma with Unmethylated MGMT Promoter
American Journal of Neuroradiology Aug 2017, 38 (8) 1528-1535; DOI: 10.3174/ajnr.A5265

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The Initial Area Under the Curve Derived from Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI Improves Prognosis Prediction in Glioblastoma with Unmethylated MGMT Promoter
Y.S. Choi, S.S. Ahn, H.-J. Lee, J.H. Chang, S.-G. Kang, E.H. Kim, S.H. Kim, S.-K. Lee
American Journal of Neuroradiology Aug 2017, 38 (8) 1528-1535; DOI: 10.3174/ajnr.A5265
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