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Research ArticleAdult Brain

Prediction of Clinical Outcome in Patients with Large-Vessel Acute Ischemic Stroke: Performance of Machine Learning versus SPAN-100

B. Jiang, G. Zhu, Y. Xie, J.J. Heit, H. Chen, Y. Li, V. Ding, A. Eskandari, P. Michel, G. Zaharchuk and M. Wintermark
American Journal of Neuroradiology February 2021, 42 (2) 240-246; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3174/ajnr.A6918
B. Jiang
aFrom the Department of Radiology, Neuroradiology Section (B.J., G.Z., Y.X., J.J.H., H.C., Y.L., G.Z., M.W.), Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, California
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G. Zhu
aFrom the Department of Radiology, Neuroradiology Section (B.J., G.Z., Y.X., J.J.H., H.C., Y.L., G.Z., M.W.), Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, California
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Y. Xie
aFrom the Department of Radiology, Neuroradiology Section (B.J., G.Z., Y.X., J.J.H., H.C., Y.L., G.Z., M.W.), Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, California
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J.J. Heit
aFrom the Department of Radiology, Neuroradiology Section (B.J., G.Z., Y.X., J.J.H., H.C., Y.L., G.Z., M.W.), Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, California
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H. Chen
aFrom the Department of Radiology, Neuroradiology Section (B.J., G.Z., Y.X., J.J.H., H.C., Y.L., G.Z., M.W.), Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, California
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Y. Li
aFrom the Department of Radiology, Neuroradiology Section (B.J., G.Z., Y.X., J.J.H., H.C., Y.L., G.Z., M.W.), Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, California
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V. Ding
bDepartment of Medicine (V.D.), Quantitative Sciences Unit, Stanford University, Stanford, California
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A. Eskandari
cNeurology Service (A.E., P.M.), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois and Lausanne University, Lausanne, Switzerland
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P. Michel
cNeurology Service (A.E., P.M.), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois and Lausanne University, Lausanne, Switzerland
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G. Zaharchuk
aFrom the Department of Radiology, Neuroradiology Section (B.J., G.Z., Y.X., J.J.H., H.C., Y.L., G.Z., M.W.), Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, California
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M. Wintermark
aFrom the Department of Radiology, Neuroradiology Section (B.J., G.Z., Y.X., J.J.H., H.C., Y.L., G.Z., M.W.), Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, California
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    FigURE.

    Receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) of XGB prediction models with clinical features, imaging features, both clinical and imaging features, best-performing features, and SPAN-100 for predicting a 90-day mRS score of >2. For all patients and recanalized and nonrecanalized patients, the AUCs of models with the best-performing features were higher than those in SPAN-100, and statistical significance was reached in the total and nonrecanalized groups. The AUCs for machine learning models with the 6 best-performing features in the total cohort and recanalized and nonrecanalized groups were 0.80, 0.79, and 0.82, respectively. The AUCs for SPAN-100 were 0.78, 0.76, and 0.78, respectively. The AUCs of XGB models with the best-performing features were higher than those in SPAN-100 and reached statistical significance for the total cohort (P < .05) and the nonrecanalized patients (P < .001). In the recanalized group, the difference was not significant (P = .05).

Tables

  • Figures
  • Performance of machine learning models and the SPAN-100 index in 3 cohorts

    Cohorts/ModelsSensitivity (%)Specificity (%)Accuracy (%)AUC
    Full cohort
     Clinical features only (16 features)78.165.573.50.77
     Imaging features only (11 features)53.579.963.20.69
     Both clinical and imaging features (27 features)74.469.872.80.79
     Best-performing clinical and imaging features (6 features)72.274.072.80.80a
     SPAN-10080.664.373.50.78
    Recanalized
     Clinical features only (16 features)73.170.471.90.76
     Imaging features only (11 features)53.769.460.90.61
     Both clinical and imaging features (27 features)74.568.972.00.77
     Best-performing clinical and imaging features (6 features)76.969.973.80.79a
     SPAN-10078.863.871.90.76
    Nonrecanalized
     Clinical features only (16 features)80.065.874.10.78
     Imaging features only (11 features)63.367.864.30.70
     Both clinical and imaging features (27 features)71.380.573.30.81
     Best-performing clinical and imaging features (6 features)81.975.480.50.82a
     SPAN-10065.577.168.10.78
    • ↵a Model with the highest AUC value.

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American Journal of Neuroradiology: 42 (2)
American Journal of Neuroradiology
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B. Jiang, G. Zhu, Y. Xie, J.J. Heit, H. Chen, Y. Li, V. Ding, A. Eskandari, P. Michel, G. Zaharchuk, M. Wintermark
Prediction of Clinical Outcome in Patients with Large-Vessel Acute Ischemic Stroke: Performance of Machine Learning versus SPAN-100
American Journal of Neuroradiology Feb 2021, 42 (2) 240-246; DOI: 10.3174/ajnr.A6918

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Prediction of Clinical Outcome in Patients with Large-Vessel Acute Ischemic Stroke: Performance of Machine Learning versus SPAN-100
B. Jiang, G. Zhu, Y. Xie, J.J. Heit, H. Chen, Y. Li, V. Ding, A. Eskandari, P. Michel, G. Zaharchuk, M. Wintermark
American Journal of Neuroradiology Feb 2021, 42 (2) 240-246; DOI: 10.3174/ajnr.A6918
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